The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the broader Indian Ocean. It is the world’s single most important oil transit chokepoint: roughly 20–21 million barrels per day — one-fifth of global petroleum supply — pass through it. If it were closed, even partially, the immediate loss of supply would send global oil benchmarks like Brent crude sharply higher within days, because there is no alternative route capable of absorbing the full volume on short notice. Higher Brent directly feeds into petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and electricity prices for consumers and businesses worldwide.

You enter your monthly fuel or energy spend (or daily liters consumed) and select your country and entity type. The calculator then applies three multipliers: (1) a scenario-specific Brent crude price increase derived from Goldman Sachs and IEA research, (2) your country’s Hormuz oil import exposure factor (the share of your country’s crude imports that transit the strait), and (3) a sector pass-through rate reflecting how quickly rising crude prices translate into your actual fuel bill. The result is your estimated new monthly cost and the additional annual expense under each of the three scenarios.

Asian economies that import most of their oil from the Gulf are the most exposed. Japan (95% exposure), South Korea (92%), Singapore (88%), India (88%), and China (80%) face the sharpest potential price increases. In the Middle East itself, Jordan (90%), Lebanon (88%), and Yemen (85%) are highly exposed as they have few alternative suppliers. Many African nations including Kenya (82%) and Ethiopia (80%) also face significant pass-through because the majority of their crude imports originate in the Gulf region. Norway (20%) and Russia (5%) are least affected as they are net oil exporters.

The calculator uses a pre-conflict baseline of approximately $67 per barrel, reflecting the Brent crude spot price in February 2026 before the current period of Hormuz-related tension. All scenario price projections are expressed as percentage increases from this baseline: Scenario 1 (+30–46%, $87–98/bbl), Scenario 2 (+72–94%, $115–130/bbl), and Scenario 3 (+124–199%, $150–200/bbl).

Yes, but they are limited in capacity and require significantly longer transit times. The Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline) can carry up to 5 million barrels per day to Red Sea terminals, bypassing the strait entirely. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) can move up to 1.5 million bpd to Fujairah. Tankers can reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, but this adds 15–20 days of transit time, ties up a much larger fleet, and dramatically increases shipping costs. Together, alternative routes can only substitute for roughly one-third of normal Hormuz throughput, meaning a full closure would still create a net global supply shortfall of around 13–15 million barrels per day.

These are modelled estimates based on published commodity research and publicly available trade data — not precise forecasts. Actual cost impact will vary based on your specific supplier contracts and hedging positions, government fuel subsidy policies in your country, the speed at which retail pump prices respond to wholesale crude movements, and the precise duration and severity of any closure. Businesses with commodity price hedges in place, or countries with large strategic petroleum reserves, may see materially lower pass-through than these estimates suggest. This tool is designed to give you a directionally accurate order-of-magnitude cost range for planning purposes.